Inflation has hit 2.9%, the highest in four months, and economists have finally cracked the case. It was not the Iran war disrupting global oil supplies. It was not energy companies passing through wholesale costs. It was the weather. And also the football.
According to the official record, hot weather and the men’s football World Cup actually boosted the economy — which means they simultaneously made inflation worse by existing. This is the economic equivalent of being told your house fire is both the problem and the solution, depending on which memo you read first.
Chancellor John Healey has dutifully blamed Iran for price pressures at home, which is at least geographically coherent. But the real villains, apparently, are meteorological. Rain makes energy bills go up. Sunshine makes people spend money on things. A football tournament happening somewhere makes growth happen while also making everything cost more. It is as if the economy is a teenager — it needs the activity to stay out of trouble, but the activity itself is the problem.
Energy bills remain the obvious culprit for the inflation jump, yet somehow we have collectively agreed that weather is the deeper explanation. This is what happens when you run out of conventional scapegoats: you blame the sky.
PM Andy Burnham faces political pressure if inflation stays elevated, but economists are reassuring everyone that another crisis is unlikely — as long as nothing unexpected happens in the coming months. Which, given that we have already blamed rain and rugby for our current predicament, seems optimistic.